Recent posts in Housing Wire’s REwired blog, from reporters attending the Mortgage Bankers Association 100th Annual Convention & Expo in Washington, D.C., discuss two vastly different forecasts of the impact the new qualified mortgage (QM) rules are likely to have on the mortgage market.

Kerri Ann Panchuk reports that CFPB Director Richard Cordray “cited data from Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, noting that 95% of the mortgages made today fall within the qualified mortgage standard.” Cordray also said that loans not covered by QM can still be generated as long as lenders use “sound underwriting standards and routinely perform well over time.”

On the other hand, Jacob Gaffney reports that Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin claimed: “In my state, up to 75% of mortgages won’t qualify under QM. Community banks, they all think they’ll get sued.”

According to Gaffney:  “Some felt Ryan’s estimation of 75% was way too high and placed for dramatic impact.”

Readers can decide for themselves which figure is more realistic.