Return on Quality

It’s been no surprise to see a flood of books aiming to unravel the causes of the financial crisis of 2007-2009.  By many accounts, Gregory Zuckerman’s “The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History” is the best of the bunch.

Now Michael Lewis, one of our favorite financial authors, has thrown his hat into the ring and released “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.”  Lewis is one of the most engaging writerss working today, with a particular flair for apt analogies and clear phrasing (”A credit-default swap was confusing mainly because it wasn’t really a swap at all.  It was an insurance policy…”)

By weaving compelling characters into his narrative, he manages to entertain while informing.  No mean feat.   

For a taste of Lewis’ latest, check out the long excerpt in Vanity Fair.  You’ll see that it reads like a thriller and crystallizes a lot of the thinking that’s surrounded this epic debacle.

(By the way, note the interesting phenomenon on Amazon’s customer reviews of the Michael Lewis book.  Almost every one-star rating bemoans the lack of a Kindle version of the book, not the actual content of the book.)

The title and central theme of this blog is “return on quality”, which we broadly define as the benefits to be gained from an intelligent and continuous approach to improving mortgage loan quality. 

We said in an earlier post that we would try to formulate “return on quality” and as a step in that direction, we offer a Cogent white paper called “Quality Performance Benchmarking” that was originally developed for an audience of mortgage quality control professionals. 

Image by jacob earl

In this paper, we talk about the prevalence in the mortgage industry of a production maximization mentality, in which metrics and compensation are centered on volume; the potential hazards of this mentality; guidelines for estimating the costs of poor quality, (the inverse of the return on quality); how to reward good quality; and how to craft appropriate performance metrics, or benchmarks.  The second part of the paper talks in depth about one of the most powerful tools for benchmarking performance, control charts.

This white paper was written in 2002.  Nothing has changed in the methodology.  But in the last couple of years, the eyes of most of us in the industry have been opened to the dangers of focusing exclusively on volume, volume, volume.  We welcome your comments.

It’s good news that in some quarters, quality control is beginning to matter. But here’s the Economist to remind us that the job of risk manager “is said to have the risk profile of a short option position with unlimited downside and limited upside — something every good risk manager should avoid.”

Small wonder that talent is staying away in droves.  In sales-driven cultures - like mortgage banking - it’s frowned on to discourage transactions, without which money can’t be made.  The bias is to get the deal done.  So risk managers are always swimming against the current. 

However, risk is currently the busiest area for financial recruiters, which means there is a lot of activity.  Chief risk officers are being appointed, risk committees and departments are being formed, and new regulations are announced with frequency. 

But business practices adapt to new structures and find their way around them. (Like fraud, in some ways.)  Once the spotlight is off regulation and compliance, experience suggests that a new innovation will make it seem like “it’s different this time”.  And the Cassandras in risk management will be ignored anew.

So how does a risk manager survive the next bull market?  Hope that new incentives will be put in place to encourage the right behavior.  And show the ROI of risk management - or in the case of mortgage quality control professionals, show the return on quality (ROQ).  In future posts, we’ll try to help formulate that ROQ.